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Breaking down Worlds 2022 playoff qualification scenarios

Publish Date: 13.10.2022
Logo of Worlds 2022: One & Only

We have reached the stage of Worlds 2022 when everyone gets really fixated on playoff qualification scenarios.

Jaxon has assigned its finest team of stats nerds (writer Benjamin Mock and senior editor Adel Chouadria) to bring you everything you need to know about the who and how of Worlds 2022 playoff qualification odds for each team.

Group A: Sucks to be Cloud9

Automatic Qualification Tiebreaker Minimum
Cloud9 0% 12.5%
EDward Gaming 54.69% 73.43%
Fnatic 54.69% 73.43%
T1 54.69% 73.43%
Statistics based on scenarios courtesy of Adam & Collin Pearce’s Worlds Advancement Calculator

Ben: Group A remains Worlds’ closest race, mainly because there’s no clear front-runner. Unless your name is Cloud9, you have a great chance of snagging a tiebreaker, and essentially a coin flip of outright playoff qualification. But how good/bad/ugly could this group get, Adel?

Adel: Considering EDward Gaming’s trend for being simultaneously the best team in the world and its worst, Fnatic’s knack for dramatic runbacks (2017 and 2019 at Worlds, 2021-2022 in the LEC) and T1’s moments of overconfidence in the early-game, this group is as volatile as it can be. That said, if I had to bet on a team making it outright, T1 would be it.

As for Cloud9, they have already offended European legend Martin “Rekkles” Larsson with their ‘interesting’ macro. Although they could do better, their morale might not be in it anymore. That said, much respect for them for their willingness to give their best.

Group B: Western teams, please wake up

Automatic Qualification Odds Tiebreaker Minimum
DWG KIA 62.5% 84.3%
Evil Geniuses 1.6% 12.5%
G2 15.6% 37.5%
JD Gaming 87.5% 98.4%

Ben: Oof. With JDG at 3-0 after week one, they are basically a lock for playoffs. DWG KIA isn’t exactly nipping at their LPL opponent’s heels but they are firmly in the driving seat of their own destiny. And, well, the West is also there I guess. Adel, would you care to spin me a tale of the West in Group B?

Adel: Every western League of Legends fan will learn to spell the word “doomed”—D.O O.M.E.D.—as it is an apt definition of Evil Geniuses’ current (and likely future) status in Group B. On the other hand, G2 Esports have shown signs of life against JD Gaming of all teams, and it might not be over till it’s over for them—especially if Targamas’s Senna makes an appearance. That said, the odds look somewhat grim for them, and it might be all over for them if they lose to DWG KIA.

Group C: Rogueapalooza

Automatic Qualification Odds Tiebreaker Minimum
DRX 62.5% 85.9%
GAM Esports 1.6% 12.5%
Rogue 87.5% 98.4%
Top Esports 15.6% 37.5%
This group may be less unpredictable than Group A, but every team has a chance to qualify for the playoffs at Worlds 2022.

Ben: Hey, look at us. Who would have thought? Rogue 3-0 after week one and sporting those “3-0 odds.” Behind them, you have DRX and Top, who are closer than the percentages imply. And then you have sweet, beautiful GAM. Adel, what do you have for us about Group C?

The image is a meme based on a secene from the television show Parks & Rec. In the top half of the meme, the logo of GAM Esports (a team competing at Worlds 2022) has been placed over the face of actress Jenny Slate with the caption "I have done nothing wrong, ever, in my life". In the bottom half of the meme, the logo of media outlet Jaxon has been placed over the face of actor Henry Winkler. Winkler is reaching out in the direction of Slate, with the caption "I know this, and I love you".

Adel: Top Esports is the best 1-2 team at Worlds, and it is not particularly close: their loss against DRX was down to teamfight execution, and they would do best to consider it a one-off given their teamfighting prowess in the LPL. However, they have competition: not in DRX, but in GAM Esports.

Of all the 0-3 teams currently at Worlds, GAM is the likeliest to flip the world on its head. If they show the unpredictable drafts that they displayed in the VCS, this week could be drastically different for them, and that 12.5% figure might as well become 99.99% (with a mild chance of direct qualification). As for Rogue, a win against DRX or TES locks them into the playoffs; and when that happens, there will be much rejoicing.

Group D: “I’m not like other Worlds groups”

Automatic Qualification Odds Tiebreaker Minimum
100 Thieves 1.6% 12.5%
CTBC Flying Oyster 15.6% 37.5%
Gen.G 62.5% 84.4%
Royal Never Give Up 87.5% 98.4%

Ben: So this group looks a lot like Groups B and C, except for one key difference: the team holding those 15.6%/37.5% odds isn’t a major region team. Sure, CTBC Flying Oyster has only beaten North America (which feels like playing tennis with the net down at Worlds 2022). However, that win sets up Flying Oyster to have a fighting chance of qualifying. Now to throw this over to Adel to explain more of the chaos for you.

Adel: CTBC Flying Oyster has shown significantly more promise than North America and the VCS combined: one does not simply make Gen.G break a sweat. Their drafting needs work, but everything else is better than whatever Cloud9 has been up to in Group A. If they fix that, or if they play towards their win conditions more assertively, a 3-3 Flying Oyster/Gen.G tie is no Hopium-induced mirage, but a reasonable outcome. That said, allowing teams to pick Viego-Lissandra reset compositions in this meta is a crime.

Unrelated: Royal Never Give Up and Gen.G (formerly Samsung Galaxy) have been in radically different groups throughout history. In 2017, RNG finished first, ahead of Gen.G, but Gen.G won Worlds. Perhaps, CFO’s role is to play spoiler to Gen.G’s first-place chances and to give them a rude awakening. Or, maybe, CFO could position themselves as Worlds contenders, 10 years after a team from its region—Taipei Assassins—won Worlds.

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