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Credit: Michal Konkol/Riot Games

Superweek LEC ODDS: Rogue’s uncertain first place, MAD’s hopeful playoff seat, and more


One last day, one last look at the odds of Team Vitality losing their playoff spot to MAD Lions—among messier outcomes in the Top 2.

As events unfolded in the first two days of the superweek, every team's fortunes has changed; some dramatically, some mostly as expected. Curses were undone, and others have emerged.

As such, an update is in order:

Locked in Top Four

Spot Before the superweek Last day of superweek
1 60.84% 62.50%
2 31.54% 25%
3 6.93% 12.5%

Rogue’s hopes of finishing first are still alive despite a devastating loss to SK Gaming on Week 8 Day 1, as Misfits Gaming beat Fnatic in a determining matchup for Top 2.

However, Misfits’ gift has a hint of poison to it: if Rogue lose to Excel, they are at risk of losing first place to Misfits and Fnatic if any of them win.

Furthermore, Rogue finish third if they lose and if Misfits and Fnatic win their games as they would have won less games in the second half of the split than either of them.

On the other hand, if Rogue wins, first place is theirs, and that’s all she wrote.

Locked in other spots

Excel Esports: Fifth place (42.48% before superweek)

Although Excel Esports were in play for a higher seed and in danger of dropping out of the playoffs, all they truly needed was a victory to lock a playoff spot.

After Team Vitality’s struggles and G2’s rise during the superweek, Excel Esports locked in a comfy fifth place—and their first playoff appearance ever in a major region.

Nevertheless, a victory against Rogue in the final game of the day, in specific circumstances, would mean the world to Misfits Gaming and Fnatic.

Team BDS: Ninth place (51.37% before superweek)

Team BDS’ playoff chances died before the superweek, and they were in danger of falling to tenth place if Astralis somehow went Super Saiyan during the superweek.

However, if Team Vitality lose before they play their game, BDS must deploy their fullest strength to keep competitive integrity alive, as their defeat would send MAD Lions to the playoffs over Vitality.

Astralis: Last place (84.57% before superweek)

Considering how important a victory for their opponents was, Astralis’ tenth place finish can be excused. But those victories weren’t free, as Astralis knew the importance of their games to other teams.

After they came close to destroying MAD Lions’ playoff hopes on Day 1, they will have the opportunity to destroy Team Vitality’s on Day 3 (and give MAD Lions an unexpected shot at the playoffs).

High Stakes: Still undecided

Spot Before the superweek Last day of superweek
Better outcomes 51.56% 0%
6 45.31% 75%
Out of playoffs 3.13% 25%

Team Vitality’s week was not easy by design, and it might have been their doom. Indeed, G2 Esports and their direct opponent for a playoff spot, MAD Lions, needed those wins for their own reasons.

As Vitality faltered twice, a third loss would mean disaster. If they lose to Astralis, they will be reduced to hoping that a rather off Team BDS upsets MAD Lions in the final game of the season.

Better outlooks lie in “simply beating Astralis.” Although one does not simply beat Astralis lately, they have it within them to win the game and shut the playoff door on MAD’s faces.