If you’ve found this page, chances are you’ve been asking the question: Are prediction markets legal in the United States? The short answer is yes. But they’re tightly regulated, and you’ll need to meet the eligibility requirements to sign up.
Don’t worry, we’ve tested an extensive list of approved prediction markets in the US, so we know exactly what is required. If you keep reading this guide, we’ll share the eligibility requirements and the basics of trading predictions. We’ll also spotlight Kalshi, which is one of the top legal prediction markets right now.
The best prediction market apps and websites are legal in the United States, as long as you’re at least 18 years old. This includes all 50 US states, unless the platform chooses to restrict certain regions based on its own policies. Furthermore, the industry is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), providing the necessary oversight to ensure you receive a safe, fair, and reliable trading experience.
It’s best to only register and trade on prediction markets regulated by the CFTC, as unregulated platforms are generally not permitted in the US. Beyond the legal concerns, these platforms can also carry much higher risk, so it’s wise to steer clear of them altogether. The good news is that you can find the industry’s best CFTC-regulated prediction markets in the promotional banners on this page.
Here is a quick summary of the pros and cons of US prediction markets:
Whether you’re looking for legit politics, economics, or esports prediction market apps, they’ve all got one thing in common. That’s the fact that you must be physically located in the United States and at least 18 years old, or the minimum age required by your state. Initially, the platform will use geolocation to detect your approximate location, and you’ll also be asked to confirm you meet the eligibility requirements during sign-up.
KYC (Know Your Customer) verification is then used as the final mandatory requirement to verify that you meet the requirements. During KYC, you could be asked to submit the following documents:
The unique setup of prediction markets is one of the main reasons it’s so legally accessible to US residents. But if you’re new to trading predictions, getting a grasp on this setup is essential. To start, when you visit a legal US prediction market, you’ll find a range of real-world events. Your job is to predict whether they will or won’t happen. Here are a few example events:
You can purchase “Yes” or “No” shares based on your prediction, but before you do that, you’ll need to check the price to see if it’s worth investing in the event. Each share is priced between $0.01 and $0.99, reflecting the market sentiment. An expensive share price means the market believes the outcome is likely, and the opposite is true for a cheap share price. If you purchase and hold the correctly predicted outcome when the event concludes, you’ll receive a $1 payout per share.
We’ve recently had a lot of fun testing CS2 prediction market apps, but this is just one example from a long list of topics you can trade. You can expect markets for everything from sports and economics to crypto, politics, culture, and climate. This variety helps to keep things exciting and fresh, as you can easily switch between different topics.
The best prediction platforms in the US include many of the topics we mentioned previously, but if you dig a level deeper, you’ll find even more options. For instance, if you were to examine the markets available for a topic like sports, you’d probably find several thousand events to predict. These can span short-term outcomes, like match results, to longer-term predictions, such as league or tournament winners.
Sports are arguably one of the most popular categories on prediction market platforms, with thousands of new events added every day. However, if you’re new to prediction trading, it’s not always obvious how it differs from traditional sports betting, which is still only legal in a minority of US states. If this resonates with you, we’ve provided a comparison table to help outline the key differences:
| 🚀 Feature | 💹 Prediction markets | 🔥 Sports betting |
| Core Concept | Predict the outcome of real-world events | Place bets on sports outcomes |
| Structure | Buy and sell event contracts | Fixed odds set by a bookmaker |
| Pricing | Prices fluctuate based on market sentiment | Odds set and adjusted by bookmakers |
| Regulation | Federal regulations from the CFTC | Regulated at the state level |
| Age requirement | 18+ | 21+ |
| Risk Level | Can trade in/out to manage risk | Typically locked in once a bet is placed |
| Payouts | $1 per correctly predicted event contract share | Based on fixed odds at the time of the bet |
If you’re looking for a legal and fun prediction market site to try, Kalshi should be one of your top options. It’s currently legal in all 50 US states and regulated by the CFTC. You can expect thousands of new events added every day across topics such as sports, politics, economics, culture, climate, crypto, and more. In fact, there’s even a large selection of live prediction markets to explore, primarily for sports events.
Beyond the markets, the platform is incredibly easy to use, whether you choose the app or the website. That said, if anything does go wrong, 24/7 live chat support is available to help. Plus, you can register through our links to claim a $10 trading bonus.
It doesn’t matter whether you’re using gaming prediction market apps or sports prediction trading sites; you need to know your data is safe. This is especially true when uploading personal documents for verification or sharing financial information.
Well, this is another reason the CFTC regulations are so important in the prediction space, as this oversight holds brands to high standards. Typically, CFTC-regulated prediction markets will only store essential information, such as your name, email address, residential address, and SSN. This information is also protected through SSL encryption, which is the gold standard for security.
Any profits you make from trading event predictions are typically taxable in the United States, as the IRS typically treats them as ordinary income. Some platforms may provide you with a tax form like a 1099-MISC or 1099-B if your withdrawable winnings surpass a certain threshold during the tax year.
That said, even if you don’t receive a tax form, it’s still your responsibility to report any winnings on your annual tax return. However, the rules can also vary by state, so it’s always a smart move to consult a real tax professional.
To summarize, prediction markets are legal and widely accessible across all 50 US states. If you are a US resident and at least 18 years old, you can account and trade predictions on real-world events such as sports, crypto, climate, culture, economics, politics, and more. Event contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and award a $1 payout if you correctly predict the outcome.
There’s a large selection of legal US prediction markets to try right now, but Kalshi is a brand that delivers impressive performance. You can use one of our links on this page to get started at this platform with a $10 welcome bonus.
Yes, prediction market sites are legal in all 50 US states to residents at least 18 years old.
No, prediction markets are considered financial trading and are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
No, you must be physically located in a US state or territory where the prediction market is legal.
Yes, most legal US prediction sites require identity checks to comply with federal regulations.
Basic financial protections are available on CFTC-regulated platforms. However, you are responsible for your own trading and investment losses.
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