Astralis and Pain Gaming are set to go head-to-head once again at PGL Cluj-Napoca 2025 but is this the start of a fresh rivalry or is it just a string of bad luck for the South Americans?
During IEM Katowice, Astralis and Pain Gaming faced off in a do-or-die match in the play-in stage. While Pain Gaming was billed as a modest favorite over Astralis, this didn’t really make much sense. After all, Pain Gaming’s success is largely at the regional level rather than in international LAN competition.
This panned out in practice, as a 2-0 victory over Virtus.pro was followed by two tough losses to Team GamerLegion and Astralis. Now, Pain Gaming will look to rebound at PGL Cluj-Napoca. Its opening matchup is against Astralis, but will it be able to get revenge against the Danish squad?
The lines attached to this match between Astralis and Pain Gaming are largely similar to those seen for their match at IEM Katowice; they’re just flipped around. A straight moneyline bet on either team has Astralis as a roughly 1.8 favorite, while Pain Gaming is a 2.0 underdog. The exact line varies from sportsbook to sportsbook.
paiN vs. Astralis – IEM Katowice 2025 Play-in
A case can be made that Astralis’ favorite status is being under-sold by that line given Pain’s body of work. The team has been able to beat elite talents in online tournaments, but its success in LAN events is largely limited to teams from the Americas and a CIS team every so often. This isn’t to say that Pain can’t win against European teams, but the team has a 3-10 record against EU and CIS teams on LAN since the start of October 2024.
That record, and Pain Gaming’s recent loss against Astralis, doesn’t paint a pretty picture regarding the team’s chances. As such, the question is how to extract as much value as possible from these lines.
The best option is betting on things to go largely similar to how this match went at IEM Katowice. For those who missed it, Astralis won 2-0 in a generally convincing fashion.
Astralis winning the match at 2-0 at 3.3 or better is a reasonably good value. Alternatively, bettors may want to consider over/unders on rounds that point toward a generally quick match. The exact lines and options vary based on the sportsbook, but Astralis won in 42 rounds.
Pain Gaming has a definite chance of defeating Astralis, but its underdog status at PGL Cluj-Napoca is justified.
Astralis’ current roster isn’t especially consistent. The team has taken more than its share of upset losses over recent months, including against teams widely ranked below Pain Gaming. Not only that, but Pain Gaming is capable of pulling off surprise victories. Whether it’s on LAN or online, beating the likes of FaZe Clan is no small feat.
Pain Gaming being the underdog is justified, even if Astralis didn’t beat them just days ago. Still, this isn’t the 2018-era Astralis that was completely untouchable.
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