PGL Cluj-Napoca 2025: MOUZ vs BIG betting analysis

PGL Cluj-Napoca is set to feature some interesting matchups, but how should bettors approach something like BIG vs MOUZ?

Counter-Strike 2 fans are just a few days removed from IEM Katowice 2025. That’s also the case for the competitors. While PGL Cluj-Napoca is a big event that boasts a huge $1.25 million prize pool, many of the best teams passed on an invitation.

The result is a number of top teams facing off with squads that otherwise wouldn’t have been part of the event, creating several major mismatches. BIG vs MOUZ isn’t the biggest of mismatches, but how can bettors approach what sportsbooks consider a slam-dunk outcome?

ELIMINATION STAGE! MOUZ vs TheMongolz – HIGHLIGHTS – PWE CS2 SHANGHAI MAJOR 2024

BIG vs MOUZ best bets, predictions

• MOUZ wins 2-0 (2.38)
• MOUZ wins 2-1 (3.07)
• BIG winning the map, if things go to Mirage

Sportsbooks have a number of absolutely wild mismatches on the card for PGL Cluj-Napoca. It’s not all wild mismatches, as seen with Astralis vs Pain Gaming. Matches like The MongolZ vs Complexity Gaming stand at a lopsided 1.1 vs 6.0 line, while bets on Eternal Fire beating Imperial Fe aren’t even being taken by some sportsbooks.

MOUZ vs BIG isn’t quite that lopsided, but the moneyline has MOUZ as a 1.4 favorite against BIG being a 2.9 underdog. MOUZ isn’t quite a prohibitive favorite at those odds, but it’s also not a particularly juicy bet.

While there’s sometimes value to be found in an underdog being underestimated by the bookie, that’s not really the case here. MOUZ is a strong favorite, and for good reason. So where’s the value?

MOUZ winning 2-0 or 2-1 both provide some reasonable value. For those looking for something riskier, the realm of round handicaps offers the biggest wins. This is a risky prospect given the scrappiness of both teams but depending on which maps get selected, it could offer the best value.

One particularly good opportunity that may or may not arise is betting on BIG to defeat MOUZ if they play on Mirage. BIG isn’t lights-out on Mirage, but MOUZ has a steeply losing record and has taken losses on the map to teams like 3DMax.

BIG vs. Heroic – IEM Katowice 2025 Play-in

Can BIG beat MOUZ at PGL Cluj-Napoca?

BIG has the capacity to beat MOUZ at PGL Cluj-Napoca, but it’s facing some steep odds.

The team revealed its overhauled roster on January 10, 2025, adding Can “kyuubii” Ali from Fnatic and promoting Marcel “hyped” Köhn from its academy roster. Though the sample size is small thus far, the early outlook for this roster isn’t positive. BIG’s record with this roster is 4-7.

Those numbers don’t come exclusively against elite competition, either. Its wins have mostly come against overmatched teams like OG and Imperial Fe. That isn’t to say BIG is suddenly bad, as evidenced by its win over Heroic in Katowice. But it doesn’t look as though the team has undergone a serious glow-up with the additions of kyuubii and hyped.

BIG beating MOUZ wouldn’t be the biggest upset in Counter-Strike history, or even this month. But make no mistake, it’d be a big upset.