Paper Rex, one of the most beloved teams in the Valorant scene, are struggling to find strong footing in the new year.
Pacific’s most popular team is currently in the Lower Bracket of VCT Pacific Kickoff, and must win three matches in a row to qualify for VCT Masters Santiago.
For bettors, the question is simple: should we ride Paper Rex to qualification, or bet against them with their backs against the wall?
Right now, Paper Rex and all other Pacific teams are competing in the VCT Pacific Kickoff 2026 tournament.
Teams are seeded into a triple-elimination bracket, with the three survivors qualifying for VCT Masters Santiago – the first international Valorant tournament of the year.
Paper Rex are down to their last life, as they find themselves in the Lower Bracket. This means if they lose one more series, they are out of the event and cannot qualify for Santiago. They need three straight wins to qualify for the event.
The team replaced Patrick “PatMen” Mendoza for Adrian “invy” Reyes, and the team hasn’t looked as dominant as they were in 2025. So, what are the chances Paper Rex survives the Lower Bracket and book tickets to Santiago?
As mentioned earlier, Paper Rex must string together three wins in a row to survive the bracket. However, before any conversations about qualification can even begin, they must first get past their next opponents: DRX.
PRX and DRX were two of the strongest teams in Pacific last year, qualifying for numerous international events. However, times have changed, and only one of them can continue their run in Kickoff.
The Valorant betting odds tell us that the matchup is extremely close, with Paper Rex being slight favorites at 1.76 odds (via GG.Bet Esports) at time of writing. For latest odds check the odds tool below.
DRX vs prx odds courtesy of GG.Bet
We expect this series to be very close and scrappy, and like most of Paper Rex’s previous games, betting on over rounds or over maps could be a good option.
Paper Rex are notoriously known for thriving in chaotic and high-pressure games, so we slightly favor them going into this series.
The good news for Paper Rex fans is that, if PRX manage to take down DRX, the path forward should theoretically get easier. While none of the matchups are guaranteed, the toughest hurdle on Paper Rex’s road is likely right in front of them.
Image via Liquipedia
Their potential next opponents depend on results higher up in the bracket. The favorites to claim the first two spots are Rex Regum Qeon in the High Bracket and T1 in the Middle Bracket – the very two teams who sent Paper Rex into the Lower Bracket in the first place.
If RRQ and T1 pull through, Paper Rex will face DetonatioN FocusMe and Nongshim RedForce in the Lower Bracket. On paper, Paper Rex should be favored against both of these teams. Though DFM and NSR have looked sharper recently, these lineups have rookies and inexperienced players who could crack under pressure, especially in do-or-die matches against a team like Paper Rex.
Without sugarcoating, asking Paper Rex to win three straight elimination matches while they’re clearly not in peak form is a tall order.
That said, we strongly believe DRX are the biggest hurdle by a clear margin. If Paper Rex manage to get past that matchup, and the expected favorites like T1 and RRQ hold their ground in the upper bracket, the difficulty of PRX’s remaining path drops significantly. In that scenario, their chances of qualifying for Masters Santiago increase exponentially.
Image via Riot Games
All in all, we wouldn’t be too surprised if the winner of Paper Rex vs. DRX ends up being the team that qualifies for Masters Santiago.
If we were to place bets, we would lean toward Paper Rex. This roster is built for situations like these. Backs against the wall in a do-or-die match, Paper Rex always thrives in chaos and pressure.
So, as long as RRQ and T1 win their respective matches, we believe Paper Rex has a very solid chance of making it through, but they must first beat DRX.
Read next: Paper Rex vs DRX match preview
Featured image credit: Riot Games
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