GTA VI is the most anticipated game in years, with gamers obsessively following every new update about the game, including two incredible teaser trailers. But the game hasn’t received a new promotional trailer in over eight months, leaving fans desperate for new updates.
With the game’s delays, controversy over Rockstar and Take-Two Interactive’s union busting, and seeming radio silence about the game since late last year, many are wondering if we’ll get another trailer soon. In fact, 32% of Kalshi users have predicted we’ll get one before May, and ahead of the game’s release in November. But why?
As mentioned, 32% of Kalshi predictors on the market “New GTA VI trailer before May?” are predicting the game could receive a new trailer ahead of the date. Despite some specific verbiage (Any new trailer needs to be at least 30 seconds long), the market is trading at at $17,100 volume. Meanwhile on Polymarket, a different date is being floated.
Image: Kalshi
The market “Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31?” is sitting at 16% yes, but trending down. Again they’re using strict language in the rules and context for this Market.
Image: Kalshi
“An “official trailer” is defined as a video clearly labelled and marketed as a trailer for the game in question. Teasers, gameplay snippets, or other promotional materials will not qualify for resolution unless explicitly marketed as an official trailer by Rockstar Games.”
This means even if we do get a video snippet, these markets could resolve against ‘Yes’ predictors.
But why would we be expecting another trailer anyway? Well, there quite literally has been radio silence from Rockstar on GTA VI since May 2025 when trailer 2 dropped. And with a Nov. 19, 2026 release date, we’d expect some kind of increase in marketing coming up to and around that time.
Image Credit: Rockstar Games
However, in the ‘no’ column, generally, games don’t have more than two or three trailers total. That usually includes an announcement trailer (We could roughly equate GTA VI Trailer 1 to this), a more in-depth trailer pre-release (Trailer 2), and then usually, a release trailer, one that comes out just before or right after the game’s release to entice buyers.
In this case, we’re actually not due for a trailer until November, or even release day, so the March, and May new trailer dates are likely set to be incorrect.
Image Credit: Rockstar Games
At the moment, the Kalshi market for before May (resolving if a trailer is officially released before May 1, 2026), is trading at $0.34 for Yes, and $0.69 for No, with a $17,118 volume. Meanwhile on Polymarket, a similar market for the trailer being released before March 31 is sitting at $0.18 for Yes, and $0.88 for No. The volume on that book is sitting at over $30,000, with the majority of it in No.
We’d likely look towards the No on this, without a significant shift in Rockstar’s marketing strategy or information to the contrary. Simply, it’s rare that teams will release secondary or tertiary trailers pre-release once a teaser and a main trailer have already dropped, and prior to a release.
Stick with Jaxon.gg for more prediction market insight, and check out why most Kalshi users think GTA VI will be more than $70.
Featured Image Credit: Rockstar Games
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