Fallout is one of the most beloved gaming franchises around, with a half dozen games, a hit TV series, and a rabid fanbase that’s obsessed with the world around it, but it’s been some time since a new game in the entry.
Bethesda, creators of the Fallout franchise, and the Elder Scrolls, have recently found further success from two successful seasons of the Fallout show on Amazon. But despite this, many are confused that Bethesda hasn’t struck while the iron is hot and released a new Fallout game?
With remasters reportedly in the future, but no new title, we’re checking in on the prediction markets where just 8% of people believe Bethesda will release a new Fallout game before July. What do these 8% know that the rest of us don’t? Let’s find out.
A relatively new market, having opened this January, the “Will Bethesda release a new Fallout game before July?” tracker on Kalshi sits at 8% saying Yes, and a huge 92% saying know. It’s a pretty substantial no swing, and perhaps a safe no bet, with a $38,147 market volume.
Image Credit: Kalshi
There’s also been a huge swing since the initial market opening. On Jan. 7, things were completely flipped, with 92% predicting a pre-July release. For clarity, here’s the stipulations of the market resolution.
“If Bethesda Softworks releases a new Fallout video game (standalone title; excludes DLCs, expansions, remasters, re-releases, and mobile-only titles) to the public before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bethesda.”
So what’s changed? Well, many fans and analysts expected Bethesda, who had missed the boat with Season One of the Fallout Show, to do something, anything, to cross promote with Season 2 of the show. Running from Dec. 16, 2025, and concluding on Feb. 3 this year, hopes slowly dwindled as the show’s runtime concluded.
Then in Feb. 18 podcast, Bethesda studio head, Todd Howard, stated “multiple” Fallout games were in the works, but he also stated he wasn’t a fan of remakes. Remakes or remasters for Fallout 3 and Fallout: New Vegas have been rumored for a while, but while some insiders have suggested they’re on the way, others have instead said that we’d have a long wait.
Still, The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered shadow dropped in April 2025, a remaster of a Bethesda classic. This kind of shadow release has given fans hope that we could see something similar in 2026 with Fallout 3.
New Vegas is one of the most popular games in the series, and is expected to get a remaster. Image Credit: Bethesda.
Kalshi is currently trading yes for $0.09, and no for $0.92. Since the market opened in January, the swing has been total, with no voters making a large sum from the swing if they sold their position now. Buying in now probably isn’t the best decision, given there’s really nothing to say we’ll get anything.
What’s more, it’s highly likely that any release will instead be a remaster, not a new game. Since the stipulation in the market exclude these, as well as DLC, re-releases or mobile-only titles, it seems like a surefire loss. If you’ve already got No shares, you could probably cash out and make some bank. If you’re looking at investing now, a late position on No seems safe.
Read next: Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
Featured Image Credit: Bethesda
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