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LEC Superweek odds: Fnatic vs. G2 in lower bracket? Wacky scenarios and where to find them


Once upon a time (2013 summer split, actually), a four-way tie led to the show ending around 3 a.m. CET. No doubt, neither Sjokz and Quickshot would like to forget that day and purge it from their memory.

What they might remember is how intense the stakes became as unlikely outcomes piled up and created a crazy scenario.

Although the LEC rulebook has since improved to guarantee that we would watch less ties unfold, it won’t stop heart rates from going haywire among fans. The following are but a few of many heartrate-raising ones:

Kings and legacies, behold!

  • G2 Esports win all their games
  • Fnatic loses all their games
  • Misits can win at most two games, one of them must be against Fnatic
  • Rogue loses all their games

If Misfits lose any games after their victory against Fnatic, G2 and Rogue would be the only ones involved in a tie. Because G2’s record in the second half of the split would be higher than Rogue’s, they would take first place.

If Misfits win more than once instead, Misfits take first place in all likeliness, and G2 takes second place.

Once mighty superpowers in the LEC, Fnatic and G2 Esports could find themselves fighting in the first round… in the lower bracket.

As for what must happen for this outcome, it would make some bunnies happy:

  • Misfits must win at least two games
  • Fnatic must lose all games
  • Team Vitality and Excel Esports must win al of their games (3-0 style)
  • Nobody else matters

A three-way tie is thus formed. As aggregated head-to-head records would be 2-2 across the board, fans of “watching the world burn” can rejoice as the following ensues:

  • Excel Esports take third place through second half record (7-2)
  • Vitality take fourth (6-3)
  • Fnatic take fifth (5-4)

This time, Misfits will not be there to bail Fnatic out of fifth place, as their entry into a bigger four-way tie would have sent us to Excel Esports screaming LA LA LA LA LA and being heard in Australia as they finish second.

And as G2 would finish sixth in this setting, popcorn and nostalgia stocks would soar to an all-time high in the LEC. If that happens, please buy popcorn and tissues responsibly.

The days since Boaster (yes, that Boaster from Fnatic’s VALORANT team) chanted “EXCEL ESPORTS LA LA LA LA!” may be long gone, but we’re sure he would make an exception for this one.

  • Excel must go 3-0
  • Vitality must go 3-0
  • Misfits must beat Fnatic and lose all other games
  • Fnatic lose all games

That’s a reach, but so many things need to happen just right for Excel to secure second place directly through the tiebreakers.

How the tie breaks down through aggregated head-to-head records:

  • Excel Esports: 4-2, clearly ahead
  • Misfits: 3-3, ahead through second half record (6-3)
  • Fnatic: 3-3, behind due to second half record (5-4)
  • Team Vitality: 2-4, clearly behind

In the cases that play out exactly as above (0.10%), the standings look as follows:

  • Rogue (?-?): first place
  • Excel (3-0): second place
  • Misfits (1-2): third place
  • Fnatic (0-3): fourth place
  • Vitality (3-0): fifth place
  • G2 Esports (?-?): sixth place

In this scenario, Rogue would choose its playoff upper bracket semifinal opponent between Misfits and Fnatic, leaving the other one to Excel. Meanwhile, Perkz’s Vitality would be facing Jankos’s G2 Esports in an elimination match.

Now that’s hype.

Despite wreaking havoc on the superweek, Team Vitality wouldn’t finish higher than third. Indeed, Fnatic would be slacking its way to second place if the following happens:

  • Vitality wins all their games
  • Fnatic lose all their games
  • G2 must beat Rogue and Excel
  • Misfits must beat Fnatic and lose all other games

In that unlikely, crazy universe, there would be a four-way tie between Team Vitality, Fnatic, G2 Esports and Misfits.

The aggregated head-to-head records would be as follows:

  • Vitality: 4-2
  • Fnatic: 4-2
  • G2: 2-4
  • Misfits: 2-4

As the ties are broken once again, Fnatic would hold a 2-0 record over Vitality, qualifying them to second place despite a terrible superweek. Talk about having the luxury to fail…

This scenario also provides excitement between Misfits and G2 as they are likely tiebreaker-bound. It would also throw the hunt for sixth place in disarray as Excel would have to scramble a win, lest SK catch up.

Fans of SK Gaming and Gilius, you may choose this path:

  • SK wins all three games
  • Excel loses all three games
  • Vitality wins at least one game
  • MAD Lions’ outcomes don’t matter

We have already covered that separately in the previous article, but it begs repeating: SK’s miracle run depends on so many things going just right.

SK’s schedule is as follows:

  • Rogue: if Astralis did it, why shouldn’t SK? The matchup will have repercussions on the race for first place.
  • Excel Esports: if Excel loses to G2 the day before, this match is a must-win as it facilitates a favorable tie
  • Misfits: another game that would have massive repercussions for the first-place race, this time directly putting pressure on a 0-2 Excel.

The following needs to happen for Gilius to cement his legacy as a double miracle runner:

Even with all the stars aligning, SK depend on Vitality winning at least one game, as a 0-3 Vitality would destroy SK’s hopes. Indeed, Vitality’s 2-0 head-to-head record against SK bars them from the playoffs in ties where both teams are involved.

But if we leave fate in the hands of Zanzarah and Astralis, this would happen instead:

What if Astralis threw the LEC standings upside down and went 3-0? They could go as far as seventh place, setting the pace for an exciting summer split.

What needs to happen is relatively simple:

  • Astralis wins all their games
  • MAD Lions and SK Gaming can’t win more than one game each.
  • Team BDS cannot win more than one game.

But with MAD Lions and SK Gaming gunning for a potential playoff, that won’t be easy. And if Team BDS play spoilers for the top teams, the playoff picture at the very top changes drastically.

All concerned teams have incentives to go 3-0 for competitive integrity reasons, and all teams will. But if Astralis had a say, they would not end last.

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