Ahead of the super week, we can only be certain of one thing: no team is safely tucked into its position.
For the four teams that have made it to the playoffs, it's about seeding. Rogue could fall off its first-place pedestal, and G2 Esports could stand ready to take their spot—wait, who?
And that isn't talking about the #SKMiracleRun or of MAD Lions' playoff chances, both of which are alive but are mutually exclusive.
Before we delve into the weirdest cases (over here!), let us look into the future of a few teams and line up what's at stake for each one of them:
Top 2: 92.38%
- First place: 60.84%
- Second place: 31.54%
Outside top 2: 7.62%
- Third place: 6.93%
- Fourth place: 0.68%
In many ways, Rogue have little to worry about: all they need is one win to seal a tiebreaker scenario where they could play for top 3. Anything beyond that takes them into Top 2 territory.
However, because their second-half record would be lower than anyone they would be tied with, they would lose spots on that criterion with most of the teams that score the same number of wins.
As it turns out, Rogue’s 9-0 record in the first half might be their biggest curse as they relaxed and experimented in the second half.
Highlight: according to the numbers, Rogue cannot go to the lower bracket in the first round of the 2022 LEC spring playoffs. Well done!
Dr. Strange wears a Vitality jersey for second place and finds none. (Edited March 4, 2022)
After clarifications from Riot Games' LoL competition manager in the EMEA region, Deniz Günay, we are sad to announce that Vitality's "second-place" scenario is instead a third-place scenario.
Hi. They would have won more than 50% of the games in aggregate against all tied teams, so top 2 and bottom 2 would be separated, triggering two new 2-way tiebreakers.— Deniz Günay (@RiotGriath) March 4, 2022
Playoff upper bracket: 22.95%
- Third: 8.01%
- Fourth: 14.94%
Playoff lower bracket: 73.92%
- Fifth: 28.61%
- Sixth: 45.31%
Out of playoffs: 3.13%
- Seventh: 3.03%
- Eighth: 0.10%
This is the endgame now, Team Vitality.
There is glory if RNGesus wills it: that third-place finish is up for grabs, and its existence gives incentive to go 3-0 for the final week.
Besides, at worst, showing what the “super” in superteam stands for would help greatly in the playoffs as first place will be less likely to select VIT, possibly landing in an easier matchup in the upper bracket.
Just… make sure to win one game. Just one game at least. You have one job. I don’t want to hear about that 3.13% chance of not making it to the playoffs as a superteam, alright?