Is opening CSGO cases profitable?

Every case drop in CS2 comes with the temptation of cracking it open, but can that $2.49 investment ever turn out profitable?

If tactical action is the meat of Counter-Strike, the skins are the potatoes. It’s common to see even completely new players decked out with gun skins, and the flashy gem knives and blue gem AK-47s attract just as many players as the professional scene. However, the CS2 skin economy all comes down to the cases, as they are the only way to acquire skins outside of operations. Cases themselves can also be quite valuable, with two dozen cases currently selling for more than the price of a key. However, a pricy case means an even higher ceiling for its skins.

So what are the odds of opening a knife or gloves from a CS2 case and actually making the process profitable?

What are the odds of opening a knife or gloves from a CS2 case?

Valve has revealed the exact odds of any CS2 case opening being a knife or gloves, and it’s exactly .25575%.

This is based on Valve’s released stats in China, where the odds of loot boxes and similar game mechanics must be public knowledge. Chinese users then shared the information so that everyone could know the odds. Based on that number, players will need to open 391 cases on average to get a knife, which would cost around $973.59 just to purchase the keys. Add cases to the equation and the estimated cost of the average knife opening far surpasses the $1,000 mark.

Before these stats became public knowledge in 2016, fans correctly estimated that the odds of a CS2 skin being StatTrak™ is 10%. The community was right on the money. This makes the odds of opening a StatTrak™ knife .02558%, roughly one in 3,909 cases. The odds of opening a pair of StatTrak™ gloves is 0% since they don’t exist.

Purple, pink, and red odds in CS2 cases

The odds of opening a purple, pink, or red from a case in CS2 is 19.82097% combined.

This is highly stratified between the three tiers. Listed below are the exact odds of opening a purple, pink, and red.

• Purple – 15.98465%
• Pink – 3.19693%
• Red – .63939%

As with the knife and gloves odds listed above, these numbers are taken directly from Valve’s official CS2 case odds published in China. The rarity of each color increases by around a factor of five, meaning that a pink is statistically likely to appear at around the same rate as five purples. By extension, opening five pinks is roughly the same odds as opening a single red. Strangely, the odds of opening a knife break this rule, as they are just over a third as common as reds. It’s fairly common to hear that StatTrak™ reds are rarer than knives, and with an opening chance of .06394%, this is true.

FAQ about profitable cases in CS2

Can you make money out of opening CS2 cases?

It is possible to make money out of opening CS2 cases, but the odds indicate that making a profit over a large number of cases is extremely unlikely. The average skin is worth much less than the $2.49 required to purchase a key, and that assumes the player got the case for free in a weekly drop. In older cases where even blues are worth more than a key, the case itself is usually extremely expensive. While possible, players should never start opening CS2 cases with a plan to make money.

Is opening cases worth it?

Opening cases is rarely a good financial idea, but there is some fun beyond just a price tag. The actual case opening itself can be exciting, especially if friends are watching. There is always the chance to open a random case and get a flashy gun skin or even a knife, which would make that one case profitable. CS2 players who have money to burn don’t have to feel guilty about opening a few cases here and there, but free-to-play grinders are better off directly buying the skins they want.

What are the chances of making a profit from opening CS2 cases?

Assuming that StatTrak™ purples and pinks are more expensive than the case and key, the chances of making a profit from opening single CS2 cases is 5.69054%. This only applies to each individual opening, as a single good open could pay for an entire unboxing spree. Something like a gem Doppler or high-tier vanilla knife could pay for thousands of cases. However, it’s just as possible to open a garbage Navaja or Gut Knife that only pays for a few dozen openings. As players open more and more cases without a big payout, the odds of suddenly making a profit drastically go down.

Should I open all my cases or sell them?

Players who have a collection of CS2 cases may be tempted to open all of them, but assuming they got the cases for free, the only way to guarantee a profit is to sell them instead. This is especially true for old cases like the Breakout or Operation Hydra cases. However, players who want a thrill from opening a case and don’t mind spending on a key are perfectly free to open them instead. They could get lucky and rip a rare skin, though the odds suggest otherwise.

Can I make money from CS2 cases?

There are no CS2 cases that are guaranteed to make money on an average open. The only exception to this is if a player happens to already own extremely old and rare cases like the Bravo or CSGO Weapon case. If so, they are technically guaranteed to make more money than they would have to spend on a key even if they open a blue. However, they would likely make more money by just selling the cases instead.

Which CS2 case is most profitable?

As of late 2024, the Operation Wildfire case is the most profitable CS2 case on average, but it is still an expected loss for every case opened. Price tracker cases.jonesy.moe calculates the case to have a 57.88% return rate. This is based on purchasing each case for $2.91 and a key for $2.49. However, this value includes the average price of a gold from the case, which is not guaranteed to appear no matter how many cases players open. In short, no CS2 case is profitable, but the Wildfire is the least unprofitable.