You are most likely here because you are debating going down the rabbit hole of opening CSGO cases and are wondering if it’s profitable.

Let me tell you, once you open that first case; you’re done. You are forever grasping redemption from the last case.

Here, we will share the confirmed CSGO case odds that could lead to that gold showing up on your screen.

Knife or Gloves, what are the odds?


Well, your chances aren’t so high.

If you want an exact percentage of the chance of opening a knife or gloves per case, it would be 0.25575% per case. If you tried to unbox a stat track knife, that’d be around a 0.02558% chance per case.

So, mathematically, you will need to open around 390 cases before getting a knife.

Therefore, 390 cases are $975, with keys priced at $2.50. So moral of the story, guys, buy the knife outright!

Seriously, imagine spending $975 on a Navaja knife. Don’t be that guy.

Reds, Pinks, Purples, what are the odds?

Csgo Case Oddds
Valve CSGO Case odds

If you thought the knife/gloves odds were terrible, get a load of this chart; this is accurate data.

This chart was made possible due to the “loot crate law” from China’s ministry of culture in 2016, where publishers were requested, by law, to display their loot crate odds or have them removed.

Therefore, if you want even to achieve winning a red “covert” skin, you have a 1 in 156 chance of even scoring a red! This is one of the only “guaranteed” profitable skin types in all cases.

Purple And Pink

Even purple “restricted” and pink “classified” skins, which you typically won’t even profit from the odds, are still 3.1% and 15.9%, which when you actually logically think about it is ridiculously low.

As you can see in the image, there are examples of restricted and classified skins, all fluctuating thinly between the lines of losing and winning money—all at the expense of a minimum 16% chance.

Don’t forget; these CSGO cases are $2.5 each.

Can you make your money back on CSGO cases?

Making your money back on CSGO cases is unlikely, unless you get very luck and quit while you’re head. But there are different ranges of return that you can expect to receive when opening different skin cases in the game.

The Operation Wildfire case, which was released as part of Operation Wildfire in 2016, is one of the best examples of what a potential return can look like when opening even the most advantageous cases. Opening one of these cases is going to cost about $2.49, which is actually slightly less than the average return on the case’s loot.

But that doesn’t take into account the cost of the case itself. When you add the case’s cost together with the cost of opening it, even this high-return case won’t earn your money back over time. And this is among the best cases in the game, nearly a decade old now.

The CS:GO Weapon Cases are even older. And while they do produce a higher average return, they’re also more expensive to acquire and open, which again means that even in this near-ideal scenario, you’re going to be losing money over time if you continue to open these cases.

The story concludes that you should buy your skins; statically, it is significantly cheaper. Opening CSGO cases to get the skins you want is not profitable. At all.

But who knows, maybe it’s your lucky day.

If you're looking for premier coverage of the biggest competitive first-person shooters on the planet, William Dowey is your man. William's main areas of coverage are Counter-Strike and Call of Duty, and he approaches both games from every possible angle. Whether it's the latest news from the robust CS esports scene, or the newest bit of info on the most recent entry in the COD franchise, William brings the heat to