IEM Katowice 2025: Pain Gaming vs Astralis betting analysis

IEM Katowice’s play-in stage grinds on and one of the featured elimination matches is a showdown between Pain Gaming and Astralis, but which team is the favorite?

Astralis is far removed from its dynasty era at this point. Though Nicolai “dev1ce” Reedtz keeps the memory alive, the team has posted precious few strong showings in major tournaments, and doesn’t necessarily find itself posting high placements in mid-level events. That said, the new Casper “cadiaN” Moller has shown a glimmer of greatness.

The same can be said, to some degree, about Pain Gaming. Though the organization is a stalwart of South American esports, it’s always been a step behind the hot Brazilian squad of the day. But its latest team followed up a surprisingly deep run in the Perfect World Shanghai Major with a surprise qualification for the BLAST Bounty Spring 2025 even by shutting out FaZe Clan.

Both teams have shown hints of being an elite-caliber squad, but which one is going to get the better of their showdown at IEM Katowice 2025?

IEM Katowice 2025 – Astralis vs Pain Gaming predictions and best bets

• Astralis wins 2-0 (3.80)
• Astralis wins 2-1 (3.50)
• Over 2.5 maps played (1.85)

From a moneyline perspective, this match is close to a tossup, with a 1.72 line on Pain Gaming winning the match against a 2.00 line for Astralis winning. This makes sense as both teams entered the event in a similar situation and have a 1-1 record against comparable opposition

The trouble is that while Pain Gaming stands higher on most rankings and is given favorite billing on the moneylines here, that sentiment is largely tied up on its success in regional play and upset wins in online tournaments. In a LAN setting against European competition, Pain isn’t nearly as strong.

Since October 2024, Pain Gaming has a 3-9 record in LAN matches against European or CIS teams. The competition hasn’t been exclusively elite, either, with Pain catching L’s from the likes of 3DMax and B8.

Pain Gaming started its IEM Katowice journey strong by stomping Virtus.pro, which comes with something of an asterisk. Virtus.pro did a major roster overhaul following its early elimination from the Shanghai Major. From there, Pain was sent back to earth by taking a tough loss to GamerLegion.

Though Astralis shares a 1-1 record with Pain Gaming at IEM Katowice 2025, both of its matches have been hard-fought. Its first match was a 2-0 defeat from MIBR where both games went down to the wire. From there, it took a 2-1 win over FlyQuest.

All this is to say that Pain Gaming isn’t a convincing favorite, which adds some extra value to bets of a convincing Astralis win.

paiN vs GamerLegion – HIGHLIGHTS – IEM Katowice 2025 | CS2

Why Pain Gaming is the favorite to win over Astralis at IEM Katowice 2025

While there is some good value on Astralis, Pain Gaming being the favorite doesn’t come out of nowhere. The team has shown an ability to hit above its weight class in online tournaments, and is a credible fringe top-10 team across multiple rankings.

Meanwhile, Astralis is prone to taking upset losses. Though it’s gotten LAN wins over elite competition, it has also taken losses from the likes of Passion UA and Sashi Esport.

Astralis has a good body of work, but its current roster has been wildly inconsistent. This means it’s hard to be too confident in them, even if they’re not playing against fringe top-10 teams.