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IEM Katowice 2025’s group stage is wrapping up and one of the biggest matches left on the card is Natus Vincere vs The MongolZ, but is there any value there when it comes to betting?
Throughout Counter-Strike’s history, just a few regions have had major success. North America typically has a few high-level teams, as does Brazil. The bulk of the talent is found across Europe and the CIS, and almost everywhere else is usually fighting for crumbs.
That has made Mongolia’s top squad becoming an international sensation a bit of a treat. The roster has been together since 2023 and has steadily improved over time, going from a regional sensation to Asia’s definitive top team to a team that is universally ranked in the top 10.
But how do they hold up against the true elites of Counter-Strike 2? That’s the question as The MongolZ faces Na’Vi.
Natus Vincere is the definitive favorite against The MongolZ heading into their matchup. While it’s justified, the moneylines of Na’Vi winning at around 1.5 against The MongolZ’s 2.4 are a bit overstated.
While Valve actually ranks The MongolZ as a top-tier team and third in the world on its official rankings as of February 3, other rankings aren’t nearly as generous. Generally speaking, both quantitative rankings and the fandom’s “eyeball check” have Team Spirit as the top team while Natus Vincere, Team Vitality, FaZe Clan, and G2 Esports are all jockeying for second.
The disparity between Valve’s rankings and everyone else’s likely lies in the small sample size of The MongolZ playing against that top five. When the team has found itself playing against those five, it tends to lose, with a 3-8 record across matches. And when the team loses in a best-of-three against those teams, it tends to lose 2-0. Na’Vi has played against The MongolZ twice; both of which are best-of-one victories.
For those looking to pick the winner, picking Na’Vi at 2-0 offers the strongest value.
All this said, Na’Vi isn’t perfect and has lost to lower-ranked teams than The MongolZ in recent months. The MongolZ has also been able to get wins over top teams, including Team Spirit. The MongolZ’s chances of victory are likely better than the 2.39 line suggests.
The MongolZ have taken wins over teams ranked similarly or better than Na’Vi, suggesting the Mongolian team can win.
Meanwhile, Na’Vi doesn’t just lose to the cream of the proverbial crop. Since October 2024, Na’Vi has taken best-of-three losses from Heroic, Furia, and Astralis. All three teams are typically ranked similarly to or below The MongolZ.
All this is to say that The MongolZ does have a chance against Na’Vi, despite the Ukrainian squad being the definitive favorite.
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