In games like League of Legends and Dota 2, patches can change everything. Heroes that were dominating the scene can suddenly disappear, while forgotten characters might suddenly become the most overpowered in the game.
For smart bettors, this creates opportunities to spot undervalued teams and find bets that people overlook. Below we will explain why patch notes can be a gold mine of great bets.
Patch notes, especially in MOBA games, can pretty much act as a “reset button” for professional teams and players. Some teams tend to abuse the same playstyle or heroes to dominate for a while, and a new, big patch can completely shake up the professional scene.
A big patch can make heroes stronger or weaker, change items, or even adjust the core mechanics. This means that the strategies that worked before might suddenly stop working, as new strategies emerge. This is how the meta evolves.
Big patches can create a lot of uncertainty in esports betting, so you no longer have a good grasp of what works. However, it also presents opportunities. Teams that figure out the new meta first often have an advantage before the betting odds catch up.
So, if you can pay close attention to the patch notes and which teams adapt quickly, you pretty much have a free pass to bets. You can either make use of great odds or just keep placing bets on the team that is ahead of everyone.
There are many ways and approaches to analyze patch notes. Here are the most important notes:
The most important factor in analyzing patch notes is having a solid understanding of the game yourself. Remember, pro players are almost always better than you, so if you want to bet after patches, you need to have a good sense of what to expect.
Image credit: Valve
Some teams make certain heroes or playstyles the main focus of their drafts, and then build their lineup around them. If that hero or style gets nerfed, it can affect the team’s entire strategy.
Additionally, teams also have specific strengths. For example, some teams might be strong in the early game, or be late game specialists. Maybe they love playing aggressively. If a patch changes the viability of their preferred playstyle, these teams can lose their identity and struggle to do what they’re good at.
Professional matches might not provide you with enough data for a new patch, since probably only a few official tournaments have been played. So, your second best bet is to use meta-tracking websites to see which heroes have increased or decreased win rates.
Using these sites can give you a good direction of which heroes are the biggest winners and losers in the patch.
However, it’s important to make sure you check data from high-ranked players. Casual players don’t necessarily have the same game sense, so their stats may not accurately reflect the patch’s impact.
This isn’t limited to MOBAs. Even in titles like CS2, patches can shift weapon balance and impact cs2 odds.
Image credit: Liu YiCun/Riot Games
After new patches, the best teams to bet on are those who adapt very quickly. These teams speed through the patch notes and start experimenting. This gives them an advantage over teams who are slower to follow.
Some players and teams have a reputation for quickly finding new strategies when patches drop. In Dota 2, for example, players like 33 and Aui_2000 are notoriously known for being “nerdy” players who keep experimenting and discovering new stuff.
You can also look at teams that have very active ranked players. These are the guys who play 20 ranked matches a day, meaning they are more exposed to high-ranked players showing new strategies.
Keep an eye out for these types of players or teams. If you trust their adaptability, it’s not crazy to even place blind bets on them and have full faith in their ability to figure things out.
Let’s dive into a scenario where a massive patch drops one day before a tournament begins. How can you take advantage of these patches? What are the best ways?
When a very big patch has just dropped, teams most likely won’t have enough time to prepare proper strategies yet. Teams can’t just think: “Oh, this hero looks good, we should play it.” They need to play a good amount of scrims and practice matches to figure it out and confirm their theories.
So, if teams don’t have enough time to prepare and verify their strategies, matches after huge patches can really be a coinflip, depending on which team’s idea works out with almost no time for preparation.
This is the perfect time to find value bets on underdog teams. You’re essentially betting on a near coinflip, but with great odds. Conversely, we highly recommend against betting on favorites after big patches.
Another way to find value after big patches is by looking at totals, like total kills, duration, or objectives. For example, if a patch makes the map bigger or slows down objectives, it might encourage teams to play slower paced.
Since we’ve already discussed that betting on winners can be risky right after a patch, betting on totals can be a safer alternative. You can focus on over/under bets for kills or match duration, depending on how patches change the overall gameplay.
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