Grand Theft Auto 6 (GTA VI) is set to be the biggest video game of all time, with decades of work put into it and anticipation at a fever pitch. However, that anticipation has also led to speculation that GTA VI could be the first ‘$100 game,’ a title that holds a $100 price tag for just the base game.
While most Kalshi speculators don’t quite believe that it’ll hit the hundred mark, many believe it could hit upwards of $70 or $80 dollars. In fact, at the time of writing, 71% of forecasters think it will surpass $70, and 29% believe it will be more than $80. Here’s why they think that.
GTA VI is likely to be one of the biggest and most purchased games in history. With a huge map that modders believe could be one of the biggest maps in gaming history, there’s a huge value upside to the game. And despite all the GTA VI delays, with the game costing between $1 and $2 billion to make, as per reported estimates, it’s not unreasonable to think developer Rockstar, and publisher 2K would want to recoup costs with a higher price.
The upward trending of game prices has been noted for years now. While over a broader time span (say, from the early 90s to 2020s), prices have remained relatively consistent at around $50-60 dollars, prices have crept up towards the $70 mark in recent years.
Most forecasters believe GTA VI will be more than $70. Image Credit: Kalshi
In non-US markets, this is felt perhaps more acutely. For example, in the mid-90s, UK gamers expected to spend around £25-30 for many titles, especially on CD-ROM titles including PS1 and PC games. Now, many games are closer to £60 and above. A similar trend can be seen in Europe, but this is exacerbated by the fact the market for imported (US-created) games is larger than it was in the 90s.
This price increase is in part due to a historically stronger dollar (In the 90s the US dollar trended closer to around 0.5 GBP. In the 2010s and beyond, it’s closer to 0.7 GBP), but also a reduction in the hardware and software production capacities of the UK.
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Secondarily, the second-hand and digital market has reduced the perceived value of games. It’s now a common thought, especially among PC gamers, that good games can be bought for around the $20-30 price threshold. In reality, new games have not been close to that price for years, but users mistake sale prices and second-hand deals for true value, especially when the majority make purchases within sales and from second-hand outlets.
In turn, developers, especially AA and indie developers, have set new precedents for pricing, Highly anticipated title Hollow Knight: Silksong shocked with its $20 price point on release, while extraction shooter ARC Raiders pleased consumers with a $39.99 release price.
These price points were a direct reaction to outcry from consumers over overpriced and seemingly low quality games. Ubisoft’s 2024 pirate flop, Skull and Bones, was touted as the first quadruple-A game, and helmed a $70 ($69.99) price to match. After withering criticism, the game has plummeted in price, and can be bought now for around $12, less than two years after release.
71% of Kalshi users think GTA VI will be more than $70 Image Credit: Rockstar Games
The backlash from the AAAA controversy and pricing has led to a situation where gamers are far more cost-conscious for their purchases. As a result, while many had predicted initially that GTA VI could be a $80-90 game, or even reach $100, conventional wisdom means that the vast majority believe it could at most demand a $79.99 price.
At the same time, on Kalshi, 96% of forecasters believe that the game will be more than $60, likely hitting that $69.99 price point. With that position costing $0.96, it’s a tepid prediction. More bullish traders would be better served by predicting an over $70 price, or a more than $80 price, at $0.71 and $0.31 price for the position respectively.
It’s a bold prediction, where if you win, you still lose, because GTA VI will be more expensive. That said, with a good forecast, you’ll more than be able to afford a copy.
Featured Image Credit: Rockstar/2k
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