Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) might be the most anticipated video game of all time, and delays have meant it’s gone from an expected 2025 release, to the late end of 2026. Additionally, with controversy over layoffs, the punishing schedule of AAA game development cycles, and issues beyond this, there’s potential even more delays could wrack GTA VI.
But will GTA VI be delayed again? The prediction markets are split. On Kalshi, most generally trust developer Rockstar Games and publisher Take-Two Interactive to deliver the game before 2027, 75% saying it’s possible. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, 35% of predictors think another delay is likely. But why do they think GTA VI will see another delay?
Image credit: Rockstar Games
Why do so many people think GTA VI will be delayed? Well, it’s because the game has already been delayed twice. The game originally had a late 2025 release window, which had also been interpreted as ‘financial year 2025/2026’ which could at most have pushed it into an early 2026 release.
Then, in 2025, the release window was delayed until May 2026. Fans and anticipating gamers were upset, but largely, this was seen as a relatively neutral piece of news. Memes emerged (X happened before GTA VI got released!) and overall, this was seen as par for the course.
However, in late 2025, a second delay was announced by Rockstar in November 2025, in a tweet/post on X. The company stated they’d be delaying the game until November 2025, and even gave the specific release date of Nov. 19, 2026. The reason giving was to allow developers to give an extra level of polish to the game.
But many have suspected there’s other things going on behind closed doors. In October 2025, Rockstar games laid off 31 staff members. These staff were members of a prospective union, and the layoffs were seen as retaliatory by the company, and an act of “Union Busting.”
Image credit: Rockstar Games
This has gone far enough that the Independent Workers Union of Great Britain (IWGB) lodged a complaint and a court case ensued. Take-Two and Rockstar now find themselves in a legal battle with the laid-off staff.
Rockstar claims the reasoning behind these layoffs were the leaks of confidential information. That’s a perhaps questionable accusation, when GTA VI leaks have been proliferated around the internet for years now.
What’s more, with the announcement of a delay after the layoffs and accusations, many believe Rockstar are attempting to blame the delays of GTA VI on the union-forming, now laid-off staff. Whatever the case, there appears too be turmoil in the UK’s biggest game studio.
Image credit: Rockstar Games
With all these elements we wouldn’t blame anyone for thinking we’ll see another GTA VI delay.
Kalshi predictors currently believe that the game will release before 2027. That doesn’t rule out another delay, but the position is selling for $0.76. We’d be pretty confident in this prediction, as it doesn’t rule out a delay, but it optimistically prevents the 2027 release.
In contrast, small number of people predicting a shadow drop early release. Six percent of Kalshi forecasters think we could see the game before August, and 3% before June.
We’re not sure where they’re getting their info, but if it pays out, from such a cheap position, this could be a big boon for those forecasters.
Stick with Jaxon.gg for more prediction market insight, and check out why most Kalshi users think GTA VI will be more than $70.
Featured Image Credit: Rockstar Games
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