The Game of the Year Award, presented annually at the Game Awards, is one of the most prestigious titles in the gaming industry.
In 2026, the field for Game of the Year is potentially broad, with the upcoming release of Grand Theft Auto VI, a new Fable game, Resident Evil Requiem, Slay the Spire 2, and others. As a result, prediction markets for the Game of the Year have already started appearing, despite the event taking place in December.
The markets are split. Some are pointing to a GTA VI sweep, with close to 50% of predictors pointing that way. Meanwhile, smaller markets are emerging for Crimson Desert, Fable, and more. Here’s our insight.
On the Kalshi market simply titled “Game of the Year?” Grand Theft Auto VI currently sits at 44% Yes. This is a substantial part of the $112,000 volume total market, but also contains predictions for over a dozen other titles.
Image Credit: Kalshi
Here’s the most likely GotY winners according to Kalshi:
But what’s perhaps most interesting in this market is the lack of predictions for Slay the Spire 2. If there was ever a game that will almost certainly, automatically hit a 90% Metacritic score, we’d have to pick this. And there’s the absence, entirely, of recent release and million-copy seller Mewgenics. These two indie dev picks will almost certainly in the contention for Game of the Year in 2026.
Historically, there has been a bias towards AAA, but in actual wins, AA and Indie titles have done well. In 2021 It Takes Two took home the Game of the Year honour, trumping AAA offering and presumed winner Resident Evil Village.
In 2024, Astro Bot beat out the Elden Ring expansion, Shadow of Erdtree (in the first year expansions had been eligible for the award), Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, and Black Myth: Wukong. That same year, many felt Balatro was the presumed winner.
Read also: Best GTA VI prediction markets on Kalshi
Last year, Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 headed up a lineup filled with smaller titles, including Hades II, Hollow Knight: Silksong, and Kingdom Come: Deliverance II. Which is all to say, that picking the AAA top picks could be a mistake when it comes to selecting a Game of the Year for prediction.
As a result, we’d definitely stay away from Crimson Desert, instead looking more at the No option. And the No option for Half-Life 3 (not announced at time of writing), seems like a solid pick, even with a $0.97 price.
Predictors are underestimating the power of indie titles like Slay the Spire 2 and Mewgenics. Image credit: Mega Crit.
With a $0.57 price for the No score, we’d feel comfortable investing in the market for Grand Theft Auto VI. What many of the predictors are failing to account for is the fact that the GotY voting is not a simple popularity contest, and it doesn’t always focus on AAA titles.
The contest is voted for by games journalists, industry members, and the public, with the official weighting of those votes unknown. Beyond this, we’d point to the fact there’s been a general revolt against low quality AAA game releases, and the potential (no matter how slim) for GTA VI to be a flop.
For predictions with some bang for their buck, a new market for Mewgenics, or investing in the undervalued Slay the Spire 2 market (just $0.02 at the time of writing), seems like a steal. And in general, the No votes are far more lucrative, given just one title can win, and many of the games listed aren’t even released. This is a risky market, and one we feel could be swayed by a game we don’t even see coming, or a disastrous mainstream release.
Stick with Jaxon.gg for more prediction market insight, and check out why most Kalshi predictors think we won’t see another GTA trailer by May 2026.
Featured Image Credit: Sony/Pearl Abyss
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