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Fnatic and Movistar KOI are about to go head-to-head in a LEC 2025 Winter Playoffs lower-bracket semifinal match. While Fnatic is the favorite going into the match, those looking to make an informed betting decision in the Fnatic vs Movistar KOI match will wonder whether KOI has upset potential.
The LEC Winter 2025 tournament has been underway since January 18, when 10 European teams faced off in the regular season. Now only four teams remain, and while it’s confirmed that G2 will be one of the teams in the final, the other team remains undecided. KOI and Fnatic will face off in the LEC 2025 Winter Playoffs lower-bracket semifinal match to determine who’ll move on to go against Karmine Corp.
The team that loses the best-of-three match will be eliminated. Although both teams have performed well in the tournaments so far, Fnatic has a leg up against KOI with two more wins. Combined with Fnatic’s storied reputation in the region, the betting odds understandably reflect this gap.
While Fnatic has had an overall better run in the LEC 2025 Winter season, things aren’t so black and white. Although KOI and Fnatic’s performance in the tournament’s regular season was vastly different, with Fnatic outdoing every other participating team, KOI was the only one to hand Fnatic a defeat prior to the playoffs.
While KOI won the last time the two teams met on the Rift, the teams’ levels of experience couldn’t be further apart. Fnatic saw international play across 2024, placed second in the LEC Season Finals 2024 and participated in the 2024 World Championship. Meanwhile, KOI had a fairly tame 2024 and couldn’t even crack the top 3 of the LEC splits it participated in.
Below are the rosters for both teams in the upcoming match:
Fnatic
KOI
Fnatic has a stacked champion pool and the team frequently goes to for its first pick. This includes champions like Rell, Kai’Sa, Vi, and Ambessa. Mid laner Humanoid is the biggest anomaly. He tends to rotate between such picks as Yone, Azir, and Corki, making him the most flexible of the bunch alongside bot laner Upset. As for bans, Fnatic’s most-banned champions include Kalista, Zyra, Skarner, Draven, K’Sante, and Maokai. Skarner and K’Sante in particular will likely be banned thanks to the last time Fnatic faced KOI.
On the other hand, KOI is slightly more flexible with its champion picks. Rell, Braum, Corki, Ezreal, Azir, Yone, Vi, K’Sante, and Ambessa all have high pick rates for KOI, suggesting the team has more than enough champions to fall back on regardless of Fnatic’s picks and bans. Skarner has a 53% overall ban percentage by KOI, followed by Maokai’s 47%.
These two teams have duked it out on the big stage three times. Fnatic has won two of those matches while KOI’s only win came during the LEC 2025 Winter regular season.
While Fnatic and KOI have fought hard to make it so far in the tournament, Fnatic is the favorite to win the upcoming match by a significant margin at 1.48 compared to KOI’s odds of 2.60. Fnatic’s overall reputation as one of the best European teams is built thanks to its consistent domestic performances, and the team’s fans are hoping to see that continue here.
Even though KOI won the last time Fnatic and KOI faced off against each other, Fnatic has an overall better record. The playoff match primarily went how it did thanks to KOI’s performance with Skarner. Much to the surprise of many, Fnatic left the champion unbanned and let KOI’s jungler Elyoya pick the tanky scorpion. To take things a step further, Fnatic also drafted two immobile carries, ensuring that Miss Fortune in particular couldn’t do much.
Fnatic has seemingly learned from its mistakes, going undefeated in the playoffs and dominating Team Heretics. The play for Fnatic may be to play things safe in the first couple of minutes. KOI is a much more aggressive team, having an 86.7% first tower rate, though Fnatic is just as comparatively strong in the late game. With a 90% win rate when Fnatic is ahead after the first 15 minutes, the games will likely be determined by how the junglers impact the early game and whether Fnatic can escape it unscathed.
KOI taking more objectives may result in a victory. However, Fnatic’s experience suggests it may have adapted, and the squad covering its higher odds seems a strong bet.
Do you think you know which team will come out on top? Place your bets here!
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