Some people who bet on esports are tunnel-visioned to players, teams, and recent form. But there’s another factor that people often overlook, which is series length. There is a huge difference between matches that are played as a best-of-one, best-of-three, or best-of-five.
Below, we will explain how you should approach different series lengths and how it can lead to making smarter bets.
Series length matters a lot, especially when there is a clear gap between two teams heading into a matchup. In uneven matchups, where one team is a heavy favorite and the other is a clear underdog, shorter formats increase the volatility of the match.
Many factors can play out. Maybe the favorites are having a bad game. Maybe the favorites forgot to ban a specific hero that ruins their entire draft. Or, a player makes a huge mistake that loses their team a huge round or teamfight that changes the entire game.
This is also why most major esports tournaments hold best-of-five formats in grand finals. To identify which team is clearly the better team, forcing finalists to play more matches will reduce the randomness as much as possible.
That way, we can really see how teams bounce back from bad starts or adjust their gameplay on the fly.
If upsets are going to happen, they will most likely happen in best-of-one matches.
In many esports titles, a single mistake or swing round can decide an entire game. In games like League of Legends and Dota 2, a single “lucky” teamfight can change the entire game.
Meanwhile, in CS2 or VALORANT, “swing rounds” exist, with the winner of that specific round chaining two more rounds due to economy advantage.
The key point is that best-of-one sometimes allows everything to align perfectly for the underdog. Maybe the favorite has a slow start, or the underdog prepares a pocket pick that catches the favorites off-guard. There is just no second chance in a best-of-one.
For bettors, this makes the best-of-one very dangerous when choosing heavy favorites at low odds.
While underdogs are still underdogs for a reason, the variance is extremely high, which is why best-of-ones are great to place value bets on teams with high odds.
Image credit: Valve
Best-of-three is the most common format across almost all major esports titles. It is the perfect balance between competitiveness and a good match length.
Best-of-three gives room to make mistakes without instantly losing the series. If a team drops the first map, they still have time to regroup and change their approach for the next game.
One “lucky” map win from the underdog doesn’t immediately transition into a series win – they need to pull it off one more time to prove they deserve the match.
The best-of-three format is favorable for teams who came prepared and are willing to adapt. They are allowed to drop the enemy team’s map pick and analyze strategies from the first game and adjust accordingly.
Over two or three maps, the team with better individuals and adaptability will most likely win the game in the end.
Best-of-five, however, is a completely different ball game. Upsets can happen in best-of-one, and sometimes in best-of-three matches too, but seeing underdogs pull off wins in best-of-five matches is very rare.
Teams must play up to five maps, and with so many games played, it becomes incredibly difficult for a team to “get lucky” and win a series they don’t deserve. Best-of-five matches are made to test a team’s consistency, stamina, strat book, and mental strength – all at the same time.
Image credit: Riot Games
In tactical FPS games like CS2 and VALORANT, best-of-fives put enormous pressure on map pools. Some teams are only good at one or two maps, and can’t play anything else.
However, teams are forced to play a minimum of three different maps. This also reduces the impact of a map ban. Squads that have a wider map pool have the upper hand.
In Dota 2 and League of Legends, adaptability becomes the key word in a best-of-five series. You might see two teams create their own “mini-metas” within a series, where teams are learning from each other as the series goes.
Heroes that were ignored earlier in the tournament might suddenly become first-picks or bans. Teams that can quickly find solutions between games will usually come out on top.
If you like betting on favorites, best-of-fives are the best way to do so. Although upsets can still happen, they are much rarer.
Featured image source: Riot Games
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